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NIGERIA 2019 GOVERNORSHIP ELECTIONS: FORETELLING THE OUTCOME

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By Omoshola Deji

Governing a state in Nigeria is equivalent to, or more demanding than, ruling some countries in Africa and the world. For instance, the Governor of Lagos State has about 20 million persons to cater for, while the President of Togo and Denmark have just about 6 and 8 million people under their watch. In matured democracies, the rigours of providing credible leadership dissuade people from contesting, but that is not the case in Nigeria because politics is very rewarding. Over 90 political parties, represented by over a thousand candidate, are seeking the mandate to govern Nigeria’s 29 (out of 36) state for the next four years on March 9. This piece foretells the outcome of the election in all the states. All the states? Yes! All the 29 states where governorship elections will hold.

 

Nigeria has 36 states, but 7 states governorship elections are off-cycle. The court ordered the swearing-in of the rightful poll winners when persons who were returned elected via electoral fraud has already started governing.  The court also ordered that the winners four-year term had to start counting from the date they were sworn-in. Thus, an election will not hold in Anambra, Edo, Ondo, Bayelsa, Kogi, Ekiti, and Osun States. The uneven dates only affect the governorship poll as the State House of Assembly election — which is usually conducted simultaneously with the governorship — will be holding in all the 36 states.

 

Independently foretelling the right outcome of governorship elections in 29 states is an uneasy, nearly impossible task. Nonetheless, the Pundit is taking up the challenge and targeting to make the right prediction in over 20 states. Send in the awards and ensure this make the headings if the writer sails through.

 

Ardent followers of the writer’s work need no induction, but the customary introduction and clarification need to be reechoed at this point for the first-timers. The writer, subsequently titled Pundit, is Nigeria’s election result Nostradamus. Foretelling election’s outcome is a reflection of his political analysis prowess, not an endorsement of any party or candidate. The accuracy of his past forecasts has attracted the media and many Nigerians, home and abroad, to look out for his prediction during elections. Foretelling an election outcome doesn’t mean the Pundit has access to one sacred information or the election-winning strategy of any candidate. Assessing candidates’ fortes and flaws to foretell the winner is a common practice in developed nations. This doesn’t mean the pundits are demeaning the electoral process or influencing the election results. Nigerians have already decided who they’ll cast their votes for and nothing – not this prediction – can easily change their minds.

 

The Pundit wishes to provide an in-depth analysis of the election victory determinants in the 29 states (where governorship election will be conducted), but doing so will make this piece as long as a book. Taking the readers time and convenience into consideration, the Pundit would succinctly analyze the dynamics that’ll determine the outcome of the governorship poll in each state and foretell the winner. For easy grasp and reference, the analysis would be done per state according to the nation’s geopolitical zones. The six zones that constitute Nigeria are the North West (7 states), North East (6 states), North Central (6 states plus the Federal Capital Territory), South-South (6 states), South West (6 states), and the South-East (5 states).

 

 

North West

 

Governorship elections will hold in all the 7 North West states, including Kano, Katsina, Kaduna, Kebbi, Sokoto, Jigawa, and Zamfara State.

 

Kano State: The election is a two-horse race between Governor Abdullahi Ganduje of the All Progressives Congress (APC) and Mr Abba Yusuf of the People’s Democratic Party (PDP). Kano is APC’s stronghold and the PDP recently had a major setback. On Monday, 4 March, 2019, a Federal High Court in Kano nullified Yusuf’s candidacy, citing the failure of the PDP to properly conduct its primary. Kano State has three main power bloc, each controlled by Governor Ganduje and ex-Governors Ibrahim Shekarau and Rabiu Kwankwaso. Ganduje and Shekarau are in the APC. The political weight of Kwankwaso would only earn PDP substantial votes, not a win. The recent corruption allegation against Ganduje will have no effect on his reelection. APC will win.

 

Katsina State: The state is relatively a one-party state with the APC holding sway. High profile defections such as that of ex-Deputy Governor Abdullahi Faskari has weakened PDP’s capacity in the state. The PDP candidate, Senator Yakubu Lado is currently not in the best form to defeat Governor‎ Aminu Masari, the APC candidate. Katsina is President Muhammadu Buhari’s home state and his influence will give APC a landslide victory in the state.

 

Kaduna State: Governor Nasir El-Rufai of the APC is facing PDP’s Isah Asiru who is a political heavyweight. APC is strong in the state, but not as before. El-Rufai’s intolerance of criticisms and arrogance has brought about a strained relationship between him and political bigwigs such as Senator Suleiman Hunkuyi and Senator Shehu Sani. This won’t deny APC a win. El-Rufai has regained strength with the recent defection of Mohammed Sidi and his over 50,000 followers into the APC. El-Rufai and his running mate are Muslims. This would make him accrue less votes in the Christian dominated Southern Kaduna area. The governorship election is going to be a tight race, but APC would win the state.

 

Kebbi State: Isa Galaudu of the PDP is contesting against Governor Abubakar Bagudu of the APC. Kebbi is APC’s stronghold and many PDP bigwigs have defected to the party, making it stronger than it was in 2015. APC will win the state by a wide margin.

 

Sokoto State: Governor Aminu Tambuwal of the PDP is confronting his former deputy, Ahmad Aliyu of the APC. Tambuwal, who defected from APC to PDP in August 2018 is fighting a supremacy battle with Aliyu Wammako, the ex-Governor and godfather of Sokoto politics. Ahmad Aliyu’s refusal to defect with Tambuwal earned him the reward of becoming the APC candidate. 252 of Tambuwal’s appointees also refused to defect with him to the PDP. On the other hand, there have been some high profile defections into the APC. Tambuwal will lose the upcoming election. APC’s Ahmad Aliyu will win, but with a small margin.

 

Jigawa State: Governor Mohammad Badaru of the APC will defeat Mallam Aminu Ibrahim of the PDP. Jigawa is terrifically dominated by the APC and many bigwigs recently abandoned the PDP. They include two governorship aspirants Aliyu Santali and Tijjani Kiyawa. Ex-Governor Ali Sa’ad Birnin-Kudu and former commissioners who served under the then PDP administration of Sule Lamido have also joined the APC. Almost all the political heavyweights in Jigawa are in the APC. The PDP and other parties are currently weak, APC will win.

 

Zamfara State: The APC in Zamfara has been bedevilled by serious intraparty crisis lately. The outgoing Governor, Abdulaziz Yari, is up against the Kabir Marafa faction over who should fly APC flags in the elections. After intense legal battles, the Abuja Court of Appeal recently delivered judgment in favor of the Yari faction. The two contending factions claimed to have reconciled but there’s still deep animosity in the party. PDP’s Bello Matawalle would profit immensely from the intraparty crisis. The incessant genocidal killings by bandits have also made the ruling APC lose the support of most affected persons and areas. The PDP would most likely win Zamfara by a small margin.

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South-South

 

The six states in the region are Edo, Bayelsa, Delta, Rivers, Cross River and Akwa Ibom State. Edo and Bayelsa State governorship elections are off-cycle. The South-South region is one of the major strongholds of the PDP. The APC is foreseen not to win any of the states, including Akwa Ibom. PDP will record a number of landslide victories.

 

Delta State: Governor Ifeanyi Okowa of the PDP is running against Great Ogboru of the APC. The longstanding power rotation/zoning formula in the state will help Okowa win. Between 1999 and now, James Ibori from the Urhobo region governed the state for two terms (1999-2007). Emmanuel Uduaghan from Warri South also spent two-term (2007-2015). Okowa from Delta North is in his first term and seeking reelection to spend another. The godfather of Delta politics, James Ibori, is backing Okowa’s candidacy. APC’s Senator Ovie Omo-Agege, who got reelected into the Senate is strong in the Delta Central region, but his capacity is not strong enough to earn Ogboru victory. PDP’s Okowa will win the election.

 

Rivers State: Governor Nyesom Wike of the PDP is coasting to victory as the Supreme Court has banned the main opposition APC from participating in the election. APC members were planning to support Dunno Briggs of the Accord Party but the court also nullified his candidacy. Members of the APC led by ex-Governor Rotimi Amaechi later resolved to adopt the African Action Congress (AAC) candidate, Biokpomabo Awara. AAC is the party of popular presidential candidate, Omoyele Sowore. It is almost certain that PDP’s Nyesom Wike will win the election.

 

Cross River: Governor Ben Ayade of the PDP will win the election. On Tuesday, 5 March, 2019, a High Court in Calabar ordered the electoral umpire to delist APC candidates from participating in the governorship and House of Assembly elections. This seals PDP’s victory in the state.

 

Akwa Ibom: Governor Udom Emmanuel of the PDP is facing Mr Nsima Nkere of the APC. Ex-Governor Akpadio’s ‘uncommon defection’ from the PDP would not earn APC a win in this poll. The party is fast gaining ground but needs to do more to establish itself and be accepted by the masses across the state. It would take some years of relentless hard work for APC to make significant inroads in Akwa Ibom. Both parties will engage in vote buying during the election, but PDP’s Emmanuel will win.

 

 

North East

 

The region comprises of six states including Adamawa, Yobe, Borno, Bauchi, Taraba and Gombe State.

 

Adamawa State: Governor Jibrilla Bindo of the APC is facing the state’s ex-Speaker and Acting Governor, Ahmadu Fintiri of the PDP. Adamawa is the home state of the PDP presidential candidate, Atiku Abubakar. The APC has been struggling to cope with the crisis that sprung up after Bindo clinched the governorship ticket. His emergence is being challenged by bigwigs such as Babachir Lawal, Nuhu Ribadu, Murtala Nyako and Modibbo Ahmed, the brother of Aisha Buhari, wife of the President. The APC is engulfed in crises while the PDP remains united and gaining support. Governorship candidates of 10 little known political parties in the state recently endorsed PDP’s Fintiri. The Pundit predicts a narrow win for PDP in the state.

 

Yobe State: Alhaji Mai Mala Buni of the APC is running against Amb. Umar Damagun of the PDP. Yobe is an APC stronghold and a one-party state. The mass defection of PDP members into the APC has further strengthened the party. APC will win the governorship poll by a wide margin.

 

Borno State: is another major stronghold of the APC in the North East. Babagana Zullum of the APC is facing Mohammed Imam of the PDP. APC will win the state by a wide margin.

 

Bauchi State: PDP’s Senator Bala Mohammed is seeking to wrestle power from Governor Mohammed Abubakar of the APC. The Governor has been struggling to hold the party together after bigwigs like the House of Representatives Speaker, Yakubu Dogara left the APC for PDP and got reelected in the just concluded national assembly election. Dogara’s defection won’t affect APC’s win. The high profile defections of ex-Governors Adamu Muazu and Isa Yuguda into APC has made the party more formidable. PDP’s Bala Mohammed is a strong candidate, the race is going to be tight, but APC would win the state.

 

Taraba State: Alhaji Sani Danladi of the APC is contesting against Governor Darius Ishaku of the PDP. Taraba is PDP’s major stronghold in the North East. The party have been governing the state from 1999 to date. Influential Buhari critic, General TY Danjuma is backing the PDP. Mama Taraba who gave PDP a tough contest in 2015 is no longer in the APC. What is more, Danladi has been largely distracted trying to defend his candidacy in court. A Federal High Court sitting in Jalingo, the state capital, disqualified his candidacy less than a week to the election. The Appeal Court later swiftly granted a stay of execution of the High Court order to enable Danladi to participate in the race. This won’t repair the damage already caused. Danladi would be defeated by Ishaku of the PDP.

 

Gombe State: The election is a two horse race between Usman Nafada of the PDP and Inuwa Yahaya of the APC. In no small measure, APC has grown strong in the state, despite being the opposition. The incumbent and outgoing governor Ibrahim Dakwambo recently lost his senatorial election. The governorship poll would be a keenly contested one as never witnessed in the history of the state. PDP’s Nafada would fight hard to win, but he would be defeated by APC’s Yahaya.

 

 

South East

 

The five states in the region are Anambra, Abia, Enugu, Ebonyi and Imo state. Anambra governorship election is off-cycle. Excluding Imo State, the South East region has been quite impenetrable for the APC. PDP will win big in the region.

 

Abia State: The governorship election is a clash of the Titans. Governor Okezie Ikpeazu of the PDP, Alex Otti of APGA and Uche Ogah of the APC are struggling to govern the state. Despite winning his senatorial election, ex-Governor Orji Kalu’s APC structure in the state is not strong enough to earn Uche Ogar a win in the governorship election. Alex Otti will score an appreciable number of votes but lose. PDP’s Ikpeazu will be reelected.

 

Enugu State: The state has remained a PDP stronghold since 1999. The governorship position has always been won by the PDP. Not that alone, almost all the elective positions from 1999 to date have been won by the PDP. Senator Ayogu Eze of the APC will be defeated by Governor Ifeanyi Ugwuanyi of the PDP.

 

Ebonyi State: The election is a two horse race between Governor David Umahi of the PDP and Sonni Ogbuoji of the APC. Both men are strong candidates, but the internal wrangling in the APC has incredibly diminished Ogbuoji’s chance. Umahi of the PDP will win the election.

 

Imo State: is the only state APC controls in the South East, but Governor Rochas Okorocha is supporting a candidate different from that of his party. Intraparty crisis had made the APC an enemy of itself in Imo State. Uche Nwosu, the candidate of Action Alliance has the backing of Okorocha, who just won a senatorial election under the platform of the APC. Moving on without Okorocha’s support, APC’s Hope Uzodinma is banking on federal might. Emeka Ihedioha of the PDP is relying on his vast connection and grassroots mobilization. The Imo 2019 governorship election is too close to call. The battle is mainly between PDP and AA. The Pundit predicts a low margin win for PDP’s Ihedioha.

Also Read:  Kogi East Senate: A two-horse race

 

North Central

 

The region also called the Middle Belt, comprises of six states, including Kogi, Benue, Kwara, Niger, Nassarawa and Plateau State. The governorship election in Kogi State is off-cycle.

 

Benue State: The lingering supremacy battle between Governor Samuel Ortom and the godfather of Benue politics, ex-Governor George Akume will not end Ortom’s reign. The Governor who is seeking reelection under the PDP has vast grassroots support. He won the peoples heart when he challenged the federal government to end the wanton destruction of lives and properties allegedly being perpetrated by herdsmen in the state. APC’s Emmanuel Jime will, most certainly, be defeated by PDP’s Ortom.

 

Kwara State: is going, going, going, and would be gone on March 9. Bukola Saraki’s political dynasty would be swept away by hurricane ‘o to ge’ – the APC campaign mantra meaning ‘enough is enough’. Saraki’s anointed and PDP’s candidate, Rasak Atunwa will lose the election to APC’s AbdulRahman Abdulrazaq.

 

Niger State: The people of Niger State are again presented with the two main choices they had in 2015. Governor Abubakar Bello of the APC and Mr Umar Nasko of the PDP are familiar rivals. Nasko is making a return to knock out Bello, but he will be defeated again. Bello will be reelected.

 

Nassarawa State: the election is a three horse race between Labaran Maku of APGA, David Ombugadu of the PDP and Abdullahi Sule of the APC. Maku would make a good appearance at the polls to come third. The gold prize is between APC’s Sule and PDP’s Ombugadu. One major setback for Ombugadu is that he and Maku are from the same region. Efforts to convince Maku to step down for him has fallen on deaf ears. This is a blessing for APC’s Sule as the votes of the region would be shared and thus become insubstantial to earn PDP or APGA a win. One major plus for Sule is that he has a large pocket. He is a former staff and candidate of Aliko Dangote in the Nassarawa governorship race. Sule has also been able to establish himself in the grassroots and win many political bigwigs over to his camp. He also enjoys the immense support of outgoing Governor Tanko Al-Makura. Victory is almost certain for Abdullahi Sule of the APC.

 

Plateau State: The poll is going to be a keenly contested race between Governor Simon Lalung of the APC and Senator Jeremiah Useni of the PDP. One crucial setback for the APC is that the majority of the population are dissatisfied with President Buhari’s handling of the herdsmen invasion and killings in the state. They believe Buhari is unconcerned about their welfare and handling the insecurity with kid gloves. On the other side, the intraparty crisis will affect PDP considerably. The win won’t come easy, but PDP’s Useni will come top.

 

South West

 

Governorship election would be conducted in only three (Oyo, Ogun, Lagos) out of the six states in the region. Ondo, Osun and Ekiti States governorship election is off-cycle.

 

Oyo State: The poll is a two horse race between Seyi Makinde of the PDP and Bayo Adelabu of the APC. The population are confused about who to vote, because of the several political alignment and realignment going on in the state. Ajimobi’s unexpected senatorial election defeat largely created the confusion. Aside from his serial uncouth orations, Ajimobi’s problem began during the APC primary in the state. He hijacked the process and make sure his anointed candidates emerged, relegating the ex-Governor Lam Adeshina’s group. Ajimobi denied Senator Akanbi the party’s ticket despite his loyalty of not hobnobbing with the Sarak camp in the Senate. Akanbi recently defected back to the APC, after Ajimobi lost the senatorial election of the ticket the former was denied.

 

Ajimobi’s recent electoral defeat rattled the APC to embark on massive political campaign, spending, and horse-trading. The party recently convinced ex-Governor Alao Akala to drop his governorship ambition and endorse Adelabu. On the other hand, PDP’s Seyi Makinde won the endorsement of ex-Governor Rasheed Ladoja and Senator Olufemi Lanlehin, the governorship candidate of the African Democratic Congress. The poll is going to be keenly contested and the last minute’s permutation could earn any of the main candidates a win. The Pundit safely predicts the emergence of APC’s Adelabu.

 

Ogun State: The election is a contest between the high and the mighty. Some of them are PDP’s Buruji Kashamu, APC’s Dapo Abiodun, APM’s Adekunle Akinlade and ADC’s Gboyega Isiaka. Governor Ibikunle Amosun who just won a senatorial election under the APC is strongly supporting his anointed successor: APM’s Akinlade. Amosun’s decision is not unconnected with the APC’s decision to hand over the party’s ticket to Dapo Abiodun. Like in Imo State, the fallout of the primary has made APC an enemy of itself in Ogun State. A lot of last-minute endorsement and permutation is going on in the state and it’s quite different to state where the pendulum would swing. Almost all the main candidates have something to fight for. Buruji is trying to prove his worth, having fallen out with the national leadership of his party, the PDP. APC’s Abiodun is fronting the ex-Governor Segun Osoba and Senator Bola Tinubu’s revenge battle against Amosun. And Amosun is fighting not to drown politically. The election is going to be keenly contested and there would be no landslide victory. The Pundit predicts the emergence of APM’s Akinlade.

 

Lagos State: The poll is a two horse race between APC’s Babajide Sanwo-Olu and PDP’s Jimi Agbaje. ADP’s Babatunde Gbadamosi is brilliant and resourceful, but he stands no chance in this election. Sanwo-Olu would win because Jimi Agbaje is not strategic. He only shows up during election season and his campaigns have been quite unimpressive. People who’ll vote for him are those who are self-convinced that Tinubu’s has overstayed his welcome in Lagos politics. Agbaje’s ‘freedom’ message has not convinced Lagosians of why the state needs freedom. His words are not as punchy as expected despite APC’s several shortcomings. On the other hand, Sanwo-Olu has campaigned vigorously and reached out to virtually everyone that matters. He is on almost every radio and TV trying to convince people that he his independent-minded and this would earn him votes. APC would lose Lagos, but not in 2019, maybe in 2023. Sanwo-Olu will win the upcoming election, but he can’t perform up to expectations. He will use the larger part of the state’s resources to be paying debts of gratitude to the APC highs and godfather.

 

The fear of losing the election and eagerness to be in Tinubu’s good book would make APC thugs intimidate voters and snatch ballot boxes in PDP strongholds. Their excesses would make the election rough, unfree, unfair and un-credible in the state.

 

*Omoshola Deji is a political and public affairs analyst. He wrote in via moshdeji@yahoo.com

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Opinion

Behold Takefusa Kubo: The New Messi

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Takefusa Kubo

A new Messi has been uncovered. He is Takefusa Kubo, a Japanese star.

He is dubbed the new Messi because of his style of play. To confirm his quality, the new Messi has been tapped up by Spanish gaint, Real Madrid in a five-year deal.

The 18 year-old midfielder joined Madrid from FC Tokyo in a 1M Euros deal that will see him playing for the Real Madrid reserve side.

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According to Spanish news outlet Marca, Los Blancos will pay FC Tokyo a sum of £1.78 million for the youngster.

Kubo will represent his country at the 2019 Copa America championship having made his international debut on 9 June against El Salvador.

Barcelona were said to have shown interests in the player but failed to seal the deal having being found guilty of youth transfer breaches and given a transfer ban.

https://twitter.com/goal/status/1139483304552349696

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Why do some people enjoy experiencing pain during sex?

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Many people think of pain and sex as deeply incompatible. After all, sex is all about pleasure, and pain has nothing to do with that, right? Well, for some individuals, pain and pleasure can sometimes overlap in a sexual context; but how come? Continue reading to find out.

The relationship between pain and sexual pleasure has lit up the imaginations of many writers and artists; especially with its undertones of forbidden, mischievous enjoyment.

In 1954, the erotic novel Story of O by Anne Desclos (pen name Pauline Réage) caused a stir in France. It had explicit references to bondage and discipline, dominance and submission, sadism and masochism — an array of sexual practices referred to as BDSM, for short.

Recently, the series Fifty Shades of Grey by E. L. James has sold millions of copies worldwide; and this further fueled the erotic fantasies of its readers.

Still, practices that involve an overlap of pain and pleasure are often shrouded in mystery and mythologized; and people who admit to engaging in rough play in the bedroom often face stigma and unwanted attention.

So what happens when an individual finds pleasure in pain during foreplay or sexual intercourse? Why is pain pleasurable for them; and are there any risks when it comes to engaging in rough play?

Here we explain why physical pain can sometimes be a source of pleasure, looking at both physiological and psychological explanations.

Also, we look at possible side effects of rough play and how to cope with them and investigate when the overlap of pain and pleasure is not healthful.

Physical pain as a source of pleasure

First of all, a word of warning: Unless a person is specifically interested in experiencing painful sensations as part of their sexual gratification, sex should not be painful for the people engaging in it.

couple being intimate and passionate
Pain and pleasure activate the same neural mechanisms in the brain.

People may experience pain during intercourse for various health-related reasons; and these can include conditions such as vaginismus, injuries or infections of the vulva or vagina, and injuries or infections of the penis or testicles.

If you experience unwanted pain or any other discomfort in your genitals during sex, it is best to speak to a healthcare professional about it.

Healthy, mutually consenting adults sometimes seek to experience painful sensations as an “enhancer” of sexual pleasure and arousal. This can be as part of BDSM practices or simply an occasional kink to spice up one’s sex life.

But how can pain ever be pleasurable? According to evolutionary theory, for humans and other mammals, pain functions largely as a warning system, denoting the danger of a physical threat. For instance, getting burned or scalded hurts, and this discourages us from stepping into a fire and getting burned to a crisp; or drinking boiling water and damaging our bodies irreversibly.

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Yet, physiologically speaking, pain and pleasure have more in common than one might think. Research has shown that sensations of pain and pleasure activate the same neural mechanismsin the brain.

Pleasure and pain are both tied to the interacting dopamine and opioid systems in the brain, which regulate neurotransmitters that are involved in reward or motivation-driven behaviors, which include eating, drinking, and sex.

In terms of brain regions, both pleasure and pain seem to activate the nucleus accumbens, the pallidum, and the amygdala, which are involved in the brain’s reward system, regulating motivation-driven behaviors.

Thus, the “high” experienced by people who find painful sensations sexually arousing is similar to that experienced by athletes as they push their bodies to the limit.

Possible psychological benefits

There is also a complex psychological side to finding pleasure in sensations of pain. First of all, a person’s experience of pain can be highly dependent on the context in which the painful stimuli occur.

older couple in bed
Some people find that rough play allows them to de-stress and distance themselves from daily worries.

Experiencing pain from a knife cut in the kitchen or pain related to surgery, for instance, is bound to be unpleasant in most, if not all, cases.

However, when a person is experiencing physical pain in a context in which they are also experiencing positive emotions, their sense of pain actually decreases.

So when having sex with a trusted partner, the positive emotions associated with the act could blunt sensations of pain resulting from rough play.

At the same time, voluntarily experienced pain during sex or erotic play can, surprisingly, have positive psychological effects, and the main one is interpersonal bonding.

Two studies — with results collectively published in Archives of Sexual Behavior in 2009 — found that participants who engaged in consensual sadomasochistic acts as part of erotic play experienced a heightened sense of bonding with their partners and an increase in emotional trust. In their study paper, the researchers concluded that:

Although the physiological reactions of bottoms [submissive partners] and tops [dominant partners] tended to differ, the psychological reactions converged, with bottoms and tops reporting increases in relationship closeness after their scenes [BDSM erotic play].”

Another reason for engaging in rough play during sex is that of escapism.

“Pain,” explain authors of a review published in The Journal of Sex Research, “can focus attention on the present moment and away from abstract, high-level thought.”

“In this way,” the authors continue, “pain may facilitate a temporary reprieve or escape from the burdensome responsibilities of adulthood.”

In fact, a study from 2015 found that many people who practiced BDSM reported that their erotic practices helped them de-stress and escape their daily routine and worries.

The study’s authors, Ali Hébert and Prof. Angela Weaver, write that “Many of the participants stated that one of the motivating factors for engaging in BDSM was that it allowed them to take a break from their everyday life.” To illustrate this point, the two quote one participant who chose to play submissive roles:

”It’s a break free from your real world, you know. It’s like giving yourself a freaking break.”

Potential side effects of play

People can also experience negative psychological effects after engaging in rough play — no matter how experienced they are and how much care they take in setting healthful boundaries for an erotic scene.

couple holding hands
People can experience psychological side effects following rough play, so it is important to discuss needs and boundaries in advance.

|Among BDSM practitioners, this negative side effect is known as “sub drop,” or simply “drop,” and it refers to experiences of sadness and depression that can set in, either immediately after engaging in rough sexual play or days after the event.

Researchers Richard Sprott, Ph.D., and Anna Randall argue that, while the emotional “crash” that some people experience immediately after rough play could be due to hormonal changes in the moment, drops that occur days later most likely have other explanations.

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They argue that feelings of depression days after erotic play correspond to a feeling of loss of the “peak experience” of rough sexual play that grants a person psychological respite in the moment.

Like the high offered by the mix of pleasure and pain in the moment, which may be akin to the highs experienced by performance athletes, the researchers liken the afterplay “low” with that experienced by Olympic sportspeople in the aftermath of the competition, which is also referred to as “post-Olympic depression.”

In order to prevent or cope with feeling down after an intense high during erotic play, it is important for a person and their partner or partners to carefully plan aftercare, both at the physical and psychological level, discussing individual needs and worries in detail.

Whatever a person decides to engage in to spice up their sex life, the key is always consent.

All the people participating in a sexual encounter must offer explicit and enthusiastic consent for all parts of that encounter, and they must be able to stop participating if they are no longer interested and willing.

Research suggests that fantasies about unusual or rough sexual play are very common, and some people decide to take the fantasy out of the realm of imagination and make it a reality.

If you decide to stray from “vanilla” sex and try other flavors too, that’s fine, and there’s nothing wrong with you. Just make sure that you stay safe and you only engage in what you enjoy and feel comfortable doing.

Culled: https://1stnews.com

 

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Opinion

DISCOS and the Case for an Encore for Fashola

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Power

By Segun Odunuyi

Way back in the 60’s and 70’s in Lagos, Discos – short for Discotheques- were the places to be on Friday nights when the weekend spell of fun and entertainment took off  in earnest. At the Disco parties and clubs, you really let off steam, gyrating wildly to the heavy bass and percussive beats of recorded pop music.

Fast forward to here and now in Lagos. The word “Discos”, to the average Lagos resident, now evokes anything but fun. Rather, it evokes the terrifying image of the bogeyman from the Power Distribution Companies (DisCos), who arrives at your homes monthly with his package of “double jeopardy” in the forms of electricity bills for energy you have most probably not used – called estimated billing – and an unending reluctance or incapacity to provide you with meters -or “pre-paid meters” in popular parlance- which, at least, enables consumers to pay for the quantum of energy consumed.

Clearly, drawing from the drift of the national conversation on the performance of the power sector, the Discos have been and remain the weakest link in the power value chain. In a recent interview, Usman Mohammed, the Managing Director/Chief Executive of Transmission Company of Nigeria (TCN) declared that “we cannot have a stable grid (electricity) unless we have an adequate investment on the distribution side and that is why TCN has been calling on the Discos to be recapitalized.” The TCN, like the Discos, is a creation of the unbundling of the former Power Holding Company of Nigeria (PHCN) in 2011 under the 2005 Electric Sector Power Reform Act, which privatized the nation’s power assets.

When he emerged on the power scene in November 2015 as the Minister of the three-in-one Ministry of Power, Works and Housing, which constituted about 80 percent of the basic physical infrastructure on which hopes for the revival of the then comatose economy rested, Mr Babatunde Raji Fashola was still basking in the public adulation of his exceptional performance as Executive Governor of Lagos State. His appointment by President Muhammadu Buhari to oversee such a “super-portfolio” elicited vehement protests from some quarters but Mr President knew that he had hit on the man to oversee the revival of physical infrastructure to drive the resuscitation of the economy..

From the 2005 Act and the subsequent unbundling also emerged entities like the National Electricity Regulatory Commission (NERC), the all-powerful regulator and licensor, and the Power Generation Companies (Gencos) who buys gas from the gas companies to produce power and sells to the Discos who rely on the TCN to get the power to their substations and distribute to homes and factories in their allocated distribution areas.

The “sin” of the Discos, then and now, is that they have never been able to fully evacuate the power load generated by the Gencos. The result is that there is a perpetual gap between power demand and supply and hence the power outages. The irony is that, contrary to popular impression in the media and among energy consumers, Fashola does not supervise the Discos. They were not licensed by his ministry but by the NERC which does not report to the Minister. So, Fashola, cannot, for example, withdraw the licence of a non-performing Disco or alter the terms or scope of operations of such licensee. That apparent absurdity in supervision was a product of privatization. Still, the minister had to navigate his way around such limitations and others to deliver on his agenda for profound and enduring change in the sector.

And, going by the incredible strides and achievements he has demonstrably notched up in just there and a half years to fast-track infrastructural development in Nigeria, Fashola’s performance has been top-drawer. But as he has stated often, the journey he had patriotically and passionately embarked upon was a “marathon and not a sprint”. Clearly, there is still a lot to do and accomplish if the Buhari government must equal or even surpass the spirited and enduring physical infrastructure development feats of the General Yakubu Gowon regime in the late 60s and 70s. Fashola undoubtedly deserves an encore on the second term Cabinet of the Buhari Administration, to reach a greater distance in the “marathon” especially in the power and works sectors.

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It had not been easy, though, for the man once dubbed “the Actualizer” when he was at the helm of affairs in Lagos State. Indeed, Fashola must have been jolted by what he inherited in the power, works and housing sectors: structural rigidities, convoluted supervisory arrangements and crippling underfunding amidst huge liabilities to contractors, amongst the many unenviable legacies of the long and mindless neglect of the country’s primary and secondary infrastructures. But he also had a free hand from Mr President as well as his own his vision and rare capacity to understand, dissect and proffer solutions to knotty issues; his legendary fervor for long and hard work and, of course, a number of able lieutenants. He was not about to fail on his set deliverables.

Take the power sector. Fashola knew he had to, literarily, “crack the DNA” of the seemingly intractable power sector, which is the livewire of industry, by introducing fresh ideas. He did not take long to arrive at his  eureka moment, and he set out to deliver to the following goals: increasing power generation from the 4,000 MW the administration met at inception, to a peak of 7,000 mw, in order to achieve “Incremental Power” -as the first visible and practical results of new initiatives; ending  the mind-budgetary under-provisioning in order to get abandoned projects back on track and to execute new power projects , and improved interface with power stakeholders and consumers to secure the critical buy-in for the ministry’s road map . After three and half years in office, Fashola and his ministry have delivered satisfactorily on all these power sector goals.

Under Fashola’s watch, the initiatives which have driven the “Incremental Power” phase of his ministry’s road map include the promotion of off-grid connections and licensing of private Meter Asset Providers (MAP). The result is that, nine universities in the country will have 24-hour supply by the end of the year while major markets across the country, including Ariaria, Sabon Gari, Sura, Iponri and a couple of others in Ondo and Ibadan now have reliable power supply from the off-grid model. Twelve private meter providers have also been licensed to roll out from May 1, 2019 nationwide in a move that will help assuage vociferous and unending consumer protests against the present regime of estimated billing by the Discos.

Budgetary allocations from 2015 till date have also reflected the administration’s success in breaking from the mold of the past, when promises to bridge the nation’s gaping infrastructure deficits were mere political statements totally unmatched by financial provisions and commitments. In 2015 the total budget for the Power ministry was a N9.06 billion with about 50 percent or N4.47 billion earmarked for salaries and other recurrent expenses, leaving a paltry N5.13 billion left for capital expenditure. That sum could barely fund 22 out of the 142 outstanding transmission projects valued at N40 billion which Fashola met on ground.

Such budget under-provisioning was, indeed, the fate of the ministries saddled with infrastructure development, a recipe for abandoned projects and worsening of the infrastructure deficit. The Muhammadu Buhari administration halted the trend. From its very first budget in 2016, the government raised the pathetic N93.66 billion for Power, Works, Aviation, Transport and the Federal Capital Territory in 2015 to a healthy N433.4 billion the next year for Fashola’s Works Power and Housing ministry alone. Indeed, by 2018, the government, even in the face of other pressing obligations and dwindling earnings, had spent a whopping N2.7 trillion on infrastructure in three years, an unprecedented record.

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And, unlike the past when the nation has had little to show for the billions of naira expended on infrastructure, demonstrable and visible results have emerged under Fasola’s watch. Yes, power outages still subsist, no thanks to the Discos who lack the capacity to evacuate power load generated by the Gencos.  The difference now, however, is that today with Fashola’s “Incremental Power”, the consumer knows he does not need to wait endlessly for power to be restored. Now, unless there is a major transmission fault in his locality, power is back soon for the consumer’s use after an outage. So, consumers now run generators for shorter periods and spend less money on fuel to power their generators. This is a far cry from the situation up till 2015. Under Fashola’s watch, power generation has increased from 4,000 MW to 7,000 MW and distribution from 2690 MW to 5222 MW as at November 2018.

Meanwhile Fashola has initiated and led a bold effort to help out the problematic Discos by proposing and securing a N72 billion funding from the federal government, which owns 40 percent states in the Discos, for the distribution companies to invest in their equipment and operations in order to evacuate excess power. With this, the gains from the “Incremental Power” phase of  the ministry’s road map  will improve significantly since power outages should be fewer.

On the works front, Fashola got contractors back on site at hundreds of abandoned road projects. Indeed, by the beginning of 2017, work was going on simultaneously on at least two roads in each of the 36 states of the federation.  The roads, including the seemingly jinxed Lagos-Ibadan Expressway, were mainly strategic arterial roads connecting states and major cities, with significant socio-economic benefits in the nation’s six geo-political zones. Construction and rehabilitation of roads involving 565 contracts are currently on-going across the nation under Fashola’s watch.

The minister’s strategy on housing growth strategy was hinged on the pilot of a National Housing Programme in 34 of the 36 states and FCT that had provided land for the scheme. Ongoing construction of different models of houses across the nation with at least 1,000 people – artisans, vendors, craftsmen and suppliers – engaged in each of the sites. Characteristically, Fashola has also sought the buy-in of the private sector by creating a better enabling environment for their participation in housing construction and development. Equity contributions for prospective home owners seeking mortgage loans from the Federal Mortgage Bank of Nigeria (FMBN) and the Federal Housing Authority (FHA) have been slashed drastically to provide easier access to housing. The institutions, which are parastatals under Fashola’s ministry now require zero percent (from 5 percent) contribution from those seeking mortgage loans up to N5 million and 10 percent (down from 15 percent) from those who want loans of over N5 million.

Even with the prodigious achievements he has notched up  in the first term of the President Muhammadu Buhari’s administration, Mr Babatunde Fashola , the Honourable  Minister of Power, Works and Housing, still has quite some distance to cover to reach the finish line of the “marathon“ which his ministry’s infrastructure road map has been. An encore for him on the next Federal Cabinet is what the nation deserves. Never mind the Discos.

Segun Odunuyi is a Lagos-based public commentator

 

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