***How 2025 By-Elections Exposed Obidients as a Collection of Noisemakers With Zero Political Impact
By Dr OPe Banwo, Founder, Naija Lives Matter and Mayor Of Fadeyi
Introduction:
From Thunder Online to Whispers at the Polls
The just-concluded by-elections across Nigeria did not merely produce winners and losers. They produced an unmasking — a sobering reality check for those who have spent the past two years claiming to be the “greatest political movement in modern Nigeria.”
2023 Labour Party presidential candidate, Peter Obi
The Obidients, who proudly declared themselves the unstoppable force of change, have now been exposed as what many of us warned they were: a collection of passionate but disorganized supporters. Loud on Twitter. Fierce in WhatsApp groups. Dazzling in rallies. Yet utterly ineffective where it counts — at the ballot box.
For all their thunder, they could not even secure a single seat in the by-elections. Not one. This is not merely a defeat. It is an indictment. A political earthquake that shows the gulf between noise and impact.
The Hubris of the Self-Proclaimed Movement
The Obidients became the victim of their own hype. They mistook hashtags for votes. They confused street processions with grassroots penetration. They assumed the moral superiority of their candidate would automatically translate into electoral victory.
They boasted endlessly about “voting out all corrupt incumbents,” yet when push came to shove, the incumbents barely noticed their presence.
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Why? Because the Obidients lacked the key ingredients that turn scattered passion into political power. And because they dismissed anyone who dared to tell them the truth.
The Peter Obi Problem
Even Peter Obi himself shares in the blame. Instead of stepping into the role of organizer-in-chief, he chose to keep the Obidients at arm’s length. He never seized the golden opportunity of a ready-made mass following.
Rather than channel their raw energy into a disciplined movement, he allowed Labour Party operatives to toy with them. He acted as though the Obidients were outsiders begging to be recognized — instead of consolidating them into the foundation of a lasting political force.
A leader who cannot recognize a gift handed to him on a platter cannot complain when that gift withers into nothing.
7 Fatal Weaknesses of the Obidient “Movement” They Need To Fix Before 2027 Elections
No Centralized Leadership
Movements require clear hierarchy, command, and direction.
Obidients had none. They were fragmented into hundreds of groups, each with its own self-proclaimed coordinators, competing for attention and resources.
No Clear Ideology
Beyond “Peter Obi is better,” there was no coherent philosophy.
A true movement articulates values that outlive its candidate. The ANC in South Africa had “freedom.” The Civil Rights Movement in America had “equality.” The Obidients had… hashtags.
No Grassroots Structures Nationwide
Electoral victories are won in villages, wards, and polling units.
Obidients remained largely urban and digital. The Nigeria that decides elections — rural farmers, market women, transport workers — never felt their presence.
Overdependence on Online Noise
Twitter spaces, viral hashtags, and online dragging do not count as votes.
The Obidients never translated their social media dominance into voter mobilization at scale.
Poor Resource Mobilization
Instead of building transparent, reliable fundraising systems, they got entangled in petty money-collection drives run by shady “alliances.”
Mistrust grew. Resources shrank. Organization collapsed.
Failure of Obi Himself To Provide Leadership
Peter Obi remained aloof. He never consolidated his followers into a disciplined force. Even now that he has finally identified fully with them in the last year, he has still not shown the leadership required to transform them into lethal political weapons capable of helping him realize his ambition to rule Nigeria. Most Obidients are ready to walk through fire for Peter Obi, but Peter remains irresolute in how to properly weaponize that loyalty into civil politics.
His refusal to wrest control of the so-called “movement” left them directionless, confused, and vulnerable to manipulation. Obi’s excessive “niceness” is probably his greatest undoing here. Where someone like Bola Ahmed Tinubu would by now have been firmly in control of the entire structure, Obi has been either too timid or too naïve to grasp this tiger and ride it like the boss of it. Today, even Peter Obi himself can be dragged and rubbished at any time if some top Obidients turn against him. How should that still be possible for a movement that was literally named after him more than three years ago?
POLITICS OF LEADERSHIP WITHOUT CREDIBILTY
The Obidient Movement should be his instrument to wield, not an unruly mob capable of turning on him at any moment. The Batists cannot even dream of such disorder because Jagaban maintains control over anyone with influence in his pseudo-movement. Obi should do well to learn from him.
Yes, Peter Obi’s occasional Twitter posts to put the Tinubu government on its toes are effective — they keep him living rent-free in the heads of Bayo Onanuga and some hardcore Batists who see his shadow even in their nightmares. But beyond these jabs, Obi has done little to convert that advantage into real political power. By now, one would expect that he would have convened at least four Obidient national conferences; encouraged them to draft their own constitution and manifesto; sponsored their registration as an NGO; and directed the establishment of formal offices nationwide. That is how he could have turned the Obidient brand into a true standing political force — not just a restless mob living on Twitter.
Hubris and Arrogance
This Perhaps the greatest weakness of the Obidients
They dismissed wisdom, insulted anyone who pointed out structural flaws, and even attacked their own leaders.
In their eyes, every critic was a “mole” or “sellout.” This arrogance blinded them until the electoral humiliation became undeniable.
Lessons from the By-Elections
The by-elections have now revealed what some of us have said for years: passion without structure is just noise.
A tiger that roars loudly but cannot bite is no tiger at all — it is a toothless tiger. And that is what the Obidients have become.
They did not lose because Nigerians dislike them. They lost because they refused to evolve into a serious movement.
What They Must Do Before 2027
If the Obidients want to matter in 2027 — whether under Labour, ADC, or any other platform — they must undergo radical transformation. Here is the hard truth:
Centralize and Institutionalize: Build a real leadership structure with accountability, not scattered WhatsApp empires.
Craft an Ideology Beyond Obi: Define what they stand for: reform, anti-corruption, youth empowerment, federal restructuring? Without a clear creed, they will dissolve after Obi.
Invest in Grassroots Penetration: Rural Nigeria decides elections. Build ward committees, local cells, and state branches. Twitter warriors don’t win polling units.
Fundraise Transparently: Adopt proper membership dues, crowdfunding, and audited finances. Money without trust destroys movements.
Build Coalitions: Nigeria is too complex for one tribe or one region to dominate. The Obidients must learn coalition politics or remain a regional cult.
Develop Political Maturity: Stop dragging every dissenting voice. Learn to listen, adapt, and negotiate. Arrogance kills movements faster than opposition.
Demand Leadership from Obi Himself: If he wants to be president, he must lead. No more arm’s length. No more leaving his base in the hands of Labour Party opportunists.
The Warning for 2027
Let me be blunt: If the Obidients do not change course, Tinubu will have an easy walkover in 2027. The so-called third force will remain a meme, not a movement.
Elections are not won by vibes. They are not won by Twitter trends. They are not won by youthful passion alone. Elections are won by organization, ideology, grassroots mobilization, and ruthless political strategy.
Until the Obidients learn this, they will continue to shout loudly online while fading quietly at the polls.
My Mayor of Fadeyi Verdict from the Balcony
In politics, passion without structure is like fire without fuel: it burns brightly for a moment, then fizzles into smoke.
The Obidients had their brightest moment in 2023. What could have been a historic breakthrough became a monumental disappointment. I was part of them then, and it still hurts to this day when I reflect on what might have been.
Instead of retooling and finding ways to grow stronger organizationally, many retreated into Twitter activism, demonizing anyone who disagreed with the violent few — no matter how much energy or resources that person had once invested in the cause. They ostracized some of their most cerebral members and, in effect, handed the keys of the asylum to the craziest inmates.
As much as I resonate with some of the ideals expressed by Obidients, the movement became too toxic for independent thinkers like me. Each time you tried to point out what needed fixing, you were branded a “mole” or accused of “having corn in your pocket.” So I walked away, to return to what comes naturally to me: being an equal-opportunity critic, free to call it as I see it — good, bad, or ugly — without belonging to any of the contesting camps.
I knew the Obidients couldn’t sustain relevance without fixing those structural weaknesses, but instead of listening, they called me names.
Now, the by-elections have exposed the reality: what once looked like the promising emergence of a force against “government as usual” has been revealed as nothing more than a toothless tiger.
The question remains: will they evolve into a real movement before 2027, or remain an online fan club waiting for another round of heartbreak?
Time will tell. But one thing is certain: if they continue on this path, history will remember them not as a movement — but as the loudest noise that never became music.
The Obidients may roar online, but at the ballot they remain a toothless tiger. Until they choose structure over noise, they will be remembered as the loudest crowd that never became a movement.
My Name Is Ope Banwo, Founder, Naija Lives Matter And The Mayor of Fadeyi. “I have said what i need to say. Obidients can choose to inspired to do better or more likely choose be more vawolent. It wont matter to me. 2027 is around the corner and we shall all be here to write the epilogue.”
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